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Big Game Kirk?

I ran onto an interesting website Thursday called coachesbythenumbers.com.  It’s a stat slicer and dicer, so I liked it straight away.  Once I got in and looked at the data they had compiled, I spent an hour going over it.  What follows are some of the angles I found interesting.

FERENTZ IN BIG GAMES:  I think playing against a ranked opponent qualifies as a ‘Big Game’  Below is how Ferentz’s Iowa teams have fared in different splits, plus a few familiar conference names and some from around the country.  NOTE:  The data sample used by this website goes back to the 2001 season through 2011.  That was not my choice of sample, rather what they made available.

Kirk Ferentz
Against Top 5 (Time of Game): (3-3) (50.0%)
Against Top 25 (Time of Game): (18-20) (47.3%)
Against Top 25 (End of Season): (18-18) (50.0%)
Against Teams Over .500 (End of Season): (46-35) (56.7%)
Against Teams under .500 (End of Season): (46-12) (79.3%)
Percentage of career wins against Teams under .500 (End of Season): 50.0%

Bret Bielema
Against Top 5 (Time of Game): (1-3)
Against Top 25 (Time of Game): (9-12) (42.8%)
Against Top 25 (End of Season): (7-15) (31.8%)
Against Teams Over .500 (End of Season): (24-17) (58.5%)
Percentage of career wins against Teams under .500 (End of Season): 60.0%

Bo Pelini
Against Top 5 (Time of Game): (0-3)
Against Top 25 (Time of Game): (6-10) (37.5%)
Against Top 25 (End of Season): (3-11) (21.4%)
Against Teams Over .500 (End of Season): (15-14) (51.7%)
Percentage of career wins against Teams under .500 (End of Season): 60.5%

Mark Dantonio
Against Top 5 (Time of Game): (0-2)
Against Top 25 (Time of Game): (8-20) (28.5%)
Against Top 25 (End of Season): (6-24) (20.0%)
Against Teams Over .500 (End of Season): (30-30) (50.0%)
Percentage of career wins against Teams under .500 (End of Season): 52.3%

Pat Fitzgerald
Against Top 5 (Time of Game): (0-2)
Against Top 25 (Time of Game): (5-14) (26.3%)
Against Top 25 (End of Season): (4-15) (21.0%)
Against Teams Over .500 (End of Season): (10-27) (27.0%)
Percentage of career wins against Teams under .500 (End of Season): 75.0%

Bob Stoops
Against Top 5 (Time of Game): (6-8) (42.8%)
Against Top 25 (Time of Game): (36-18) (66.7%)
Against Top 25 (End of Season): (23-23) (50.0%)
Against Teams Over .500 (End of Season): (63-25) (71.6)

As it relates to Ferentz against the Big Ten coaches listed, his record against rated teams who were rated at the end of the season is by far the best of any of the Big Ten coaches listed, who are also the coaches in the league with the longest tenures. He also has the best record against rated teams at the time the game was played.

 

  • harv01

    Excellent to have this info.  I’d add that Ferentz era post-2001 losses the Hawks have endured generally have been in games with scores competitive to the end of the game.  Game results are a reason (strength of next year’s schedule, especially through the end of September, doesn’t hurt too much either), together with fresh faces on the coaching staff, I look with optimism to the 2012 season. 

  • Jeffbuck7

    I would have liked to have seen how KF fared vs. Paterno and Tressell over the same span. I’m sure he was at least as good as the Michigan coaches over the period.

  • Louie4482

    Flip side- lucky Mcarney left. He out coached Ferentz every year and we can never bear Ohio State. We play to not lose.

  • IowaHusker79

    What I see from these numbers are two things. 1-Kirk Ferentz wins the big games on a regular basis. Got to give him credit. The man can coach. I’ve watched his Iowa teams knock off plenty of ranked teams and I’ve walked away impressed. 2-The numbers are a bit skewed in favor of coaches who have been coaching at a school for quite a while and who have had the opportunity to bring in several recruiting classes. Pelini, Bielema,Dantonio and Fitzgerald really haven’t had the chance to separate themselves much from the previous coaches players. Ferentz and Stoops have been coaching at the same schools for a dozen years which means a dozen recruiting classes, a dozen years to establish continuity and stability. I think that if the same survey was done 7 or 8 years from now we’d see much better numbers for the four coaches mentioned who are just starting to see their own recruits establish themselves as starters. Fitgerald, Bielema and Dantono inherited programs that were relatively successful. By that I mean the programs weren’t in a state of disarray. Pelini walked into a mess. His predecessor, Bill Callahan, almost destroyed Nebraska football. I think all six coaches are amazing but I think having tenure and quite a few years with one team gives the advantage in the numbers game to Ferentz and Stoops. 

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