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  1. #1
    hawkfaninTX's Avatar
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    Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/f...tml#post228713

    Since I was 6-3-1 in the link above last week i will press my luck-- this week has some weird lines that have me interested early.... here are a few:

    Miami @ Pitt (+5)
    -I would have guessed Pitt as favorites at Home(-4). or at least a pick'em, because the 'Canes are 3-13 against the spread coming off of a bye week. and 2-5 against the spread coming off a straight up loss. Pitt is very strong at home as most Hawk fans remember, going 7-3 against the spread in it's last 10 at Home.
    Prediction: Pitt 21 Miami 16

    Army @ Duke (-6.5)
    -I had Army pegged as a small favorite. Duke is 15-35-1 against the spread in its Last 51 Home games, and are giving up 47.5 ppg. Army will keep this game close and will win by a small margin.
    Prediction: Army 17 Duke 14

    Stanford @ Notre Dame (+6)
    -Stanford has averaged 51.7 ppg while Notre Dame could only muster 24 & 23 against the porous defenses of Michigan and Purdue. I figured Stanford a 2 TD favorite. Stanford has covered the spread by an average of 22.5 EXTRA points. Stanford is just better in all facets.
    Prediction: Stanford 34 Notre Dame 20

    Oklahoma @ Cincinnati (+17.5)
    -Oklahoma is much more powerful and seasoned, and should cover easily. Oklahoma has seen similar offenses before from teams in a pass happy league; like Texas Tech & Missouri. And it helps when Cincinnati is 0-8 against the spread in their last 8 games.
    Prediction: Oklahoma 41 Cincinnati 17

    Georgia @ Mississippi State (pk)
    -Huh? Georgia wins by a TD or more, easily. Georgia has had just about as bad of luck as the Hawks this year: against South Carolina,Georgia fumbles in the red zone instead of a go-ahead score on the road; and last week They tie the game (much like we did) but give up a TD with under a minute remaining in the game to Arkansas. SC and Arkansas are both top 15 teams. Mississippi State played an overated Auburn to a close game, Georgia holds off a Late Mississippi State rally and wins.
    Prediction: Georgia 24 Mississippi State 17

    Memphis @ UTEP (-10.5)
    -UTEP will win by 14+. Memphis is only 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 road games. Memphis has allowed a whopping 38+ ppg and Vittatoe will put up big numbers against their D.
    Prediction: UTEP 33 Memphis 13
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    Last edited by hawkfaninTX; 09-24-2010 at 04:07 AM.
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    hawkfaninTX's Avatar
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    You know what's crazy? I literally just saw this amazing stat. Look at Cincinnati's line, how many teams can you remember that were a BCS Bowl participant in the previous season being a 3 score dog at home the following year? Incredible, right?
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkfaninTX View Post
    You know what's crazy? I literally just saw this amazing stat. Look at Cincinnati's line, how many teams can you remember that were a BCS Bowl participant in the previous season being a 3 score dog at home the following year? Incredible, right?
    I was thinking the same thing. And it isn't like Kelly left the cupboard completely bare. Really kind of surprising because the programs he has left have historically been able to maintain their competetive level after he has left. Cincy has fallen off a cliff.
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    very very telling of either the power of a head coach, or the power of the effect on the psyche of the team as a head coach. He Left Central Michigan for Cincy the same way, and they are still a relavant team, it definitely makes you wonder?
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkfaninTX View Post
    http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/f...tml#post228713

    Since I was 5-3-1 in the link above last week i will press my luck-- this week has some weird lines that have me interested early.... here are a few:

    Miami @ Pitt (+5)
    -I would have guessed Pitt as favorites at Home(-4). or at least a pick'em, because the 'Canes are 3-13 against the spread coming off of a bye week. and 2-5 against the spread coming off a straight up loss. Pitt is very strong at home as most Hawk fans remember, going 7-3 against the spread in it's last 10 at Home.
    Prediction: Pitt 21 Miami 16

    Army @ Duke (-6.5)
    -I had Army pegged as a small favorite. Duke is 15-35-1 against the spread in its Last 51 Home games, and are giving up 47.5 ppg. Army will keep this game close and will win by a small margin.
    Prediction: Army 17 Duke 14

    Stanford @ Notre Dame (+6)
    -Stanford has averaged 51.7 ppg while Notre Dame could only muster 24 & 23 against the porous defenses of Michigan and Purdue. I figured Stanford a 2 TD favorite. Stanford has covered the spread by an average of 22.5 EXTRA points. Stanford is just better in all facets.
    Prediction: Stanford 34 Notre Dame 20

    Oklahoma @ Cincinnati (+17.5)
    -Oklahoma is much more powerful and seasoned, and should cover easily. Oklahoma has seen similar offenses before from teams in a pass happy league; like Texas Tech & Missouri. And it helps when Cincinnati is 0-8 against the spread in their last 8 games.
    Prediction: Oklahoma 41 Cincinnati 17

    Georgia @ Mississippi State (pk)
    -Huh? Georgia wins by a TD or more, easily. Georgia has had just about as bad of luck as the Hawks this year: against South Carolina,Georgia fumbles in the red zone instead of a go-ahead score on the road; and last week They tie the game (much like we did) but give up a TD with under a minute remaining in the game to Arkansas. SC and Arkansas are both top 15 teams. Mississippi State played an overated Auburn to a close game, Georgia holds off a Late Mississippi State rally and wins.
    Prediction: Georgia 24 Mississippi State 17

    Memphis @ UTEP (-10.5)
    -UTEP will win by 14+. Memphis is only 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 road games. Memphis has allowed a whopping 38+ ppg and Vittatoe will put up big numbers against their D.
    Prediction: UTEP 33 Memphis 13

    I have to give you props for sticking your neck out there again. If you do good this week I think you should take over Deace's weekly post
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    Miami is my play of the week, they should win handily. The Hurricane defense is fast and. The secondary is very good. Pitts inexperience at QB will prove to be a problem and Miami will make them one dimensional. Pressuring Jacory is the key and Pitt will have trouble getting to the QB. Cincy will do ok in the Big East, they had a tough OOC schedule, at NC State and in Fresno is tough enough. The beating Oklahoma is going to give them is the icing on the cake.
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    Quote Originally Posted by fufred View Post
    Miami is my play of the week, they should win handily. The Hurricane defense is fast and. The secondary is very good. Pitts inexperience at QB will prove to be a problem and Miami will make them one dimensional. Pressuring Jacory is the key and Pitt will have trouble getting to the QB. Cincy will do ok in the Big East, they had a tough OOC schedule, at NC State and in Fresno is tough enough. The beating Oklahoma is going to give them is the icing on the cake.
    Beware of the mid-week home underdog! I'd be very careful taking Miami or TCU this week. The mid-week home dogs are tough to beat, and I believe recent history will prove my point. (Just don't have it in front of me at the moment)
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    Yeah there was a streak going for awhile on the home dogs on Thursdays. Pitt and Miami is a talent mismatch and I think Da U will rebound from the OSU loss.
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  9. #9
    hawkfaninTX's Avatar
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    "da u" is playing the second game of a three game road stint, with a tough trip to Clemson coming next week. Next week Pitt plays at Home..... versus FIU. Anytime you play three straight road games it will be tough, now add that those thre teams each year are in the top 25 at some point. That is a recipe for two loses (especially when you drop the first!). Pitt played Utah tough in a stadium that holds the nations longest win streak (they will also end the year with only one loss, that being against TCU). At this point, Pitt is better, Miami buckles for the second time in a row in front of a national audience, possibly never to return to the top 25 this season.
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    At no phase of the game is Pitt better except at RB, plus UM has won 8 of the last 9 vs. Pitt. I don't think this game is gonna be very close. I expect the Canes to be in the mix for the ACC BCS berth which is a statement on how bad the ACC is.
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  11. #11
    hawkfaninTX's Avatar
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    we are both premature in our predictions, each as bold as the other. This game will either be the fading or turning point for their season. I really think they are going to struggle against some of the ACC teams this year just because of their D.
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    People who called for KF's head after Minnesota in '10:
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    Who thinks KF will never win a National Title:
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    *leaving sig until we win or KF retires/leaves the program. (sorry Mac)

  12. #12
    hawkfaninTX's Avatar
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    fufred, i have nothing invested in the picking of this game..... while your favorite team has a stake in the outcome of this game- could that be clouding your judgement of how good miami actually is? Could you, in a small way, be rooting for a positive result in this match-up?
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    We are what repeatedly do, Excellence; then it is not an act, but a Habit!
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    Sideshow214e
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    Who thinks KF will never win a National Title:
    Mac50702

    *leaving sig until we win or KF retires/leaves the program. (sorry Mac)

  13. #13
    hawkfaninTX's Avatar
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    I know it wasn't that easy to scare you away FUFRED, come back for a peaceful debate.
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    We are what repeatedly do, Excellence; then it is not an act, but a Habit!
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    People who called for KF's head after Minnesota in '10:
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    Sideshow214e
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    Who thinks KF will never win a National Title:
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    *leaving sig until we win or KF retires/leaves the program. (sorry Mac)

  14. #14

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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    bump
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  15. #15
    hawkfaninTX's Avatar
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    Re: Head Scratching Betting Lines for this Week

    yeah, well i still have 5 more games to go. Pitt was atrocious, i'll be the first to admit that. I have yet to release my ten picks for this week- these were just ones that initially jumped off the page. more will follow in a different thread that you can feel free picking from the same games to see how we stack up
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    We are what repeatedly do, Excellence; then it is not an act, but a Habit!
    ______________________________________________

    People who called for KF's head after Minnesota in '10:
    NeilDiamond
    Sideshow214e
    ICAlumni


    Who thinks KF will never win a National Title:
    Mac50702

    *leaving sig until we win or KF retires/leaves the program. (sorry Mac)

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