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    JonDMiller's Avatar
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    Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    The NCAA came down harshly on Penn State's football program Monday, taking unprecedented steps in punishing a member institution for the willing conceit and cover up related to a serial child rapist in their midst. Here are the key aspects of the NCAA's penalties:

    -$60 million dollar fine
    -Four year post season ban, including bowls and Big Ten title game appearances
    -loss of 10 scholarships per year for the next four years
    -Players can immediately transfer without having to sit out a year and 'receiving' schools can go over the 85 scholarship limit this year to bring them into their programs. After this year, those programs who brought in Penn State players would need to fit them in under their 85 scholarship maximum.

    The Big Ten will also not give Penn State it's bowl revenue share for four years, instead donating the revenues to charitable organizations. This will be around $13 million dollars.

    Some were saying yesterday that the 'Death Penalty' would be easier to overcome than what was heading Penn State's way. At the least, you can make that argument.

    Southern Methodist (SMU) received a one-year 'death penalty' from the NCAA in the mid 1980's for paying players. SMU then chose to tack on an additional year where the school did not field a football team. The Southwestern Conference also disbanded at that time and SMU really didn't have anywhere to go. The school also de-emphasized it's football program and its importance. They dramatically increased enrollment requirements for athletes and began recruiting an entirely different breed of player due to this.

    In short, SMU made their one-year penalty exponentially more difficult to overcome due to philosophical decisions they made for their university. They would have 'gotten back' to being a better program much sooner had they not taken some of those self imposed routes or made such decisions.

    Penn State will lose some players for this year's team. How many? I would guess less than 15 of their 85 scholarship players. So say that leaves them with 70. My guess is the vast majority of those players will be underclassmen.

    Penn State will only be able to add 15 scholarship players per year over the next four years. Say 1o underclassmen choose to leave over the next few weeks, that leaves them with 75 scholarship players. Say they have the full 25 rides available for next year's recruiting class but they can only use 15 rides. That means the 2013 Penn State team will have just 65 out of 85 scholarship players. That's just two more scholarships than what FCS programs are allowed (63). Northern Iowa is an FCS program, for the sake of comparison. PSU will play with just 65 scholarship players for the seasons of 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.

    These numbers are not scientific but I believe they will be in the ballpark of what Penn State will be facing, which is an enormous hole to climb out of. If they received the Death Penalty for one year, they would have been able to award 25 rides a year per normal after just one year. So again, I think you can make the case that the Death Penalty for one year might have been 'better' for the program.

    However, the punishments the NCAA handed down will not harm local businesses and 2012 players the way the Death Penalty would have.

    Some will say that USC has done just fine in the face of a two-year bowl ban and same 10-scholarship reduction over three years. Penn State is not USC.

    This is the same Penn State program who won 5, 5, 3 and 4 games in four of the five seasons between 2000-2004. USC has had two losing seasons since 1993, not counting the years where they had to vacate wins in the early 2000's.

    Penn State is not in a situation anywhere near that of USC. While there is a lot of talent in Pennsylvania, there is far more in Southern California. It's not even a debate.

    What's also not debatable is the stigma that will forever be attached to the Penn State football program as one that harbored a child rapist and hid his crimes for more than a decade, allowing him to continue to use his status and access to the Penn State program to groom future victims, which he did.

    USC also had a two-year bowl ban compared to Penn State's four. Penn State's recruiting efforts for the next three years may look MAC-ish at best, or very low level Big Ten.

    Who knows how quickly they will be able to bounce back and compete on the national stage again. They have an amazing revenue machine with their 100,000+ seat stadium and generations of fans who live and breath Nittany Lion football. I don't believe they are going to crater to the SMU level unless their administration chooses to de-emphasize football the way SMU did.

    The reality is clear; the Penn State football program we have all come to know is dead. It may never come back or at the least, may take seven years or more.
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    Last edited by JonDMiller; 07-23-2012 at 09:41 AM.

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    whammer33024's Avatar
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    pretty big edit job or did i read that somewhere else where it said by 2015 they will only have like 45 scholarship players?
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    JonDMiller's Avatar
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    Quote Originally Posted by whammer33024 View Post
    pretty big edit job or did i read that somewhere else where it said by 2015 they will only have like 45 scholarship players?
    Yes, I had to get out the scratch paper...they will be down to 65 for 2014-2017
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    BSpringsteen's Avatar
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    I think it is a 10 year recovery period.

    They will basically lose stud Freshmen and Soph's instantly and replace them with MAC level talent at best.

    Then they'll have no depth.

    By the time the schollie limit is lifted, they'll have 65 scholarship players that couldn't have received a scholarship to a B1G school.

    It will be 2-3 years before they get a majority B1G level players on the roster, and by that time, they've been irrelevant for 7 years.

    Figure it will be a rebuilding job starting at year 7, and the typical rebuild takes 3 years.
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    imported_ankle23's Avatar
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    USC hasn't yet felt the effects of the 10 scholarship loss. given that they appealed, the scholarship sanctions didn't start until 2012. losing 30 scholarship players will catch up to them soon.
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    Quote Originally Posted by BSpringsteen View Post
    I think it is a 10 year recovery period.

    They will basically lose stud Freshmen and Soph's instantly and replace them with MAC level talent at best.

    Then they'll have no depth.

    By the time the schollie limit is lifted, they'll have 65 scholarship players that couldn't have received a scholarship to a B1G school.

    It will be 2-3 years before they get a majority B1G level players on the roster, and by that time, they've been irrelevant for 7 years.

    Figure it will be a rebuilding job starting at year 7, and the typical rebuild takes 3 years.
    That's my read as well.
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    Death penalty would have been worse. SMU was given a 2nd year of zero home games, which is why they cancelled that season. PSU would have been starting their roster over from zero. Their season ticket base would have been rebuilt while now it will stay largely in tact. They'll muddle through it, but DP would have been WAY worse.
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    Quote Originally Posted by imported_ankle23 View Post
    USC hasn't yet felt the effects of the 10 scholarship loss. given that they appealed, the scholarship sanctions didn't start until 2012. losing 30 scholarship players will catch up to them soon.
    And they had Lane Kiffin over-recruit last year to stock his roster through the lean years. They also don't have the 65 cap. They will be hurt much less than PSU.
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    ColoradoHAWKEYE's Avatar
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    This will/can be overcome, but it will be a chore to rebuild for them, especially after the first 2-3 years. It could take them 6,7,8 years to get back to a top program. And that's with no coaching changes.

    The "death" penalty would have come and gone if dealt alone. If dealt with bowl and further scholie sanctions together, it would immediately cripple them, and then be much worse. All kids would transfer, as it stands now, they could keep the large majority of their current roster, and be competitive this year and next.

    The death penalty may have sent an immediate message to their fans, but they will complain anyway. This way they can still think they have football, and fans and vendors can still prosper.

    the immediate impact will be felt by how many defections they get by the current players...i would think they will get more than a couple.

    Either way...fair and just penalties. Glad it's them and not us. Might increase our win total by one this year.
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    Jon, you think less than 15 kids will leave (counting the incoming freshmen class as part of this)?

    I'd imagine they'd lose most of this class, as well as quite a few from the soon to be sophomore and junior classes. We'll see.
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    I disagree about only getting MAC level talent for the next four years ...maybe this year with expected defections and (to a certain extent) next year, but after that they will be back to hauling in their share of 4-star studs.

    Still, they will never be more than Purdue-Illinois level now, and imo that isn't acceptable as the conference is currently aligned.

    Delaney won't do the right thing and re-align the conference...(his handlers in Columbus and Ann Arbor won't allow it)....and that blows.
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    The loss of 20 scholarships each year is the biggie here. There's no way that PSU can come close to competing in the Big 10 with 20 fewer scholarship players than the competition. This effectively kills them for 4 years, rather than one, so I say that that is worse than the death penalty.

    On top of that, they can't even tell the players they CAN give scholarships to (at least this year) that they will play in a bowl game. That effectively kills an entire recruiting class.

    And with PSU's "Paterno is god and football is king" mentality, I love the vacating of wins over a 14 year period. Paterno is no longer the recognized record holder for all time wins. Effectively took away from PSU the one reason they didn't report the monster.

    I would guess that it will be about 2020 or so before PSU is once again relevant in football.
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    I think more than 15 kids are gonna bolt, and fast. 4 years with no post season? No incentive to stay. Would you go there with that carrot off the table? I wouldn't. No way.

    This is in fact worse than a one year suspension from football, and I say that as an advocate of the death penalty. This is like a vegetative state penalty.
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    Quote Originally Posted by ICHawk24 View Post
    And they had Lane Kiffin over-recruit last year to stock his roster through the lean years. They also don't have the 65 cap. They will be hurt much less than PSU.
    last recruiting class (2012) they had 16 kids. the year prior (2011) 30.

    the sanctions state that USC has 15 new scholarships for each of the three years and a 75 cap for each of the next three years.

    Scholarship Math - USC Trojans
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  15. #15
    Scorpio79
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    Re: Penn State Gets Hammer: Worse than Death Penalty?

    Quote Originally Posted by SpiderRico View Post
    The loss of 20 scholarships each year is the biggie here. There's no way that PSU can come close to competing in the Big 10 with 20 fewer scholarship players than the competition. This effectively kills them for 4 years, rather than one, so I say that that is worse than the death penalty.

    On top of that, they can't even tell the players they CAN give scholarships to (at least this year) that they will play in a bowl game. That effectively kills an entire recruiting class.

    And with PSU's "Paterno is god and football is king" mentality, I love the vacating of wins over a 14 year period. Paterno is no longer the recognized record holder for all time wins. Effectively took away from PSU the one reason they didn't report the monster.

    I would guess that it will be about 2020 or so before PSU is once again relevant in football.
    I agree with you that this part of the punishment cuts right to the heart of the problem at pedo state. Hopefully, the rabid idiots that created the atmosphere in the first place will gain some perspective. I doubt they will, but hope they do.
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